The year 2024 is a peculiar one. Indeed, more than 70 elections are supposed to take place across the world, with a record number of 4.2 billion people participating. While more than half of the world’s population will be casting their ballots, it is worth mentioning that more elections does not equate to more democracy: Many elections being neither free nor fair in our fast moving world which is currently boiling with conflicts on every continent. From Ukraine to Israel-Palestine through Congo etc… Name the continent, count the loss… human loss.

Today, given the geopolitical and economic context, the EU stands before a gate leading to the unknown. It is unprecedented in our common history. Will the way pave to a more Eurocentric approach to international relations for the EU should D. Trump get elected this year? Are we frontally going to war against Russia or rather the other way around? What about the far right gaining momentum across the EU and the world? What are the most plausible scenarios and truly in 2024, what makes the European Union still a Union?

…So many questions that cannot be answered in a brief article, yet it is clear that the EU has never been more important than today. One question that can be answered right away though:

What is the EU, in short? It is a political and economic partnership between 27 countries. Together these States cover much of the European continent.The EU is home to around 450 million people, which is around. 6 % of the world’s population.

And with that, let us now travel back in time… to the origins of the EU.

1/Partners in peace through timeA/1950–2004

In the aftermath of the devastating Second World War, a visionary initiative led to the establishment of the European Coal and Steel Community in 1952, primarily aimed at economic recovery and deterring future conflicts ergo: PEACE through ECONOMIC ties.

This embryonic phase was a pivotal moment in our European history, setting the stage for the Treaty of Rome in 1957, which birthed the European Economic Community, opening a new era of European cooperation for its founding members: Belgium, France, Germany, Italy, Luxembourg and the Netherlands.

Then in 1973, Denmark, Ireland and the United Kingdom joined the party followed by Greece in 1981.

Five years later, the accession of Spain and Portugal in 1986, was a testament to the growing appeal and influence of the European project: Prosperity and Peace. It thus expanded the EU to 12 members.

A little down the road, the Maastricht Treaty of 1992 also marked a significant transformation, transitioning from a mere economic community to a more integrated European Union, introducing a common currency and broadening cooperation across other fields.

This period witnessed substantial enlargement, notably after the Cold War, integrating several Central and Eastern European nations and reinforcing the EU’s mission as a beacon of peace and stability. In 1995, Austria, Finland and Sweden’s membership marked the near full coverage of Western Europe by the EU. The famous 15!

B/2004–2023

After a somewhat politically stable period of economic growth, in 2004 Czech Republic, Estonia, Cyprus, Latvia, Lithuania, Hungary, Malta, Poland, Slovakia and Slovenia joined the Starry Union. This was the largest group of countries to join the EU in the same year.

Three years later, Bulgaria and Romania followed the move and then finally Croatia in 2013, making the EU, a Union of 28 countries, East, Central and West and back to 27 after Brexit of course in 2020.

Overall, the last decade has shown the EU’s resilience amidst the many challenges it continues to encounter from Brexit, to migration crises, a global pandemic, two main conflicts at its gates etc…

Despite deeply rooted and growing disagreements, the Union seems to have remained steadfast in promoting peace and cohesion so far…Thus demonstrating adaptability and commitment to its foundational ideals.

Let us now briefly describe the current operational order in the EU itself. And who better than the EU itself to describe it? As its official website states:

“Today, there are 4 main decision-making institutions which lead the EU’s administration. These institutions collectively provide the EU with policy direction and play different roles in the law-making process:the European Parliament (Brussels/Strasbourg/Luxembourg)the European Council (Brussels)the Council of the European Union (Brussels/Luxembourg)the European Commission (Brussels/Luxembourg/Representations across the EU)Their work is complemented by other institutions and bodies, which include:the Court of Justice of the European Union (Luxembourg)the European Central Bank (Frankfurt)the European Court of Auditors (Luxembourg)The EU institutions and bodies cooperate extensively with the network of EU agencies and organisations across the European Union. The primary function of these bodies and agencies is to translate policies into realities on the ground.Around 60,000 EU civil servants and other staff serve the 450 million Europeans (and countless others around the world). This is actually a relatively small number , the French Finance Ministry has around 140,000 staff for a population of only 67 million.”That last sentence is a nice and gentle dig at our French leadership and I guess way of life?! (I’m French) Joke aside, this is the current state of the EU as the partnership it is.

2/The Union and the rest of the world: Economy and PeaceA/Economic parallels, ties and knots …

As of 2022, the European Union stands as a global economic titan, with a GDP exceeding $15 trillion, making it the largest trade bloc globally. The EU’s trade policy is characterized by its strategic pursuit of agreements that underscore sustainable development and equitable practices, reinforcing its economic diplomacy.

Although the EU operates in a unique way, let us not forget some of the other global alliances. Afterall, the old continent does not stand on its own… Alongside the EU, the main global alliances today are:

NAFTA (North American Free Trade Agreement), between the USA, Mexico and Canada. Representing 442.4 million people and a combined gross domestic product of $ 15.4 trillion.ASEAN (Association of Southeast Asian Nations), between 10 south-east Asian countries including Taiwan, the Philippines and Indonesia. Together, its member states represent a population of over 600 million over a land area of 4.5 million km2 with an estimated total GDP of $ 3.63 trillion.The Arab League, also known as “League of Arab States” LAS, representing 464.68 million people living in 22 countries with a GDP of approximately $3.5 trillion in total.Mercosur founded in mars 1991 represents 295 million people with a GDP of approximately $5.7 trillion. It counts 4 member states Argentina, Brazil, Paraguay and Uruguay alongside 7 associated and 2 observer states.So not only does the old yet young EU not stand alone, it is in fact continuously working on forging strong partnerships with other organizations all over the world. Planet Earth is indeed round.

Among these, the Comprehensive Economic and Trade Agreement (CETA) with Canada and the EU-Japan Economic Partnership stand out, removing barriers and knitting the economies of entire continents closer. These pacts are not mere economic transactions but bridges connecting over 600 million individuals. It is nonetheless worth mentioning that CETA for example has been met with quite the controversy, dividing opinions between those who champion its economic gains and those who highlight its potential threats to European’s agriculture and health sectors, and of course the environment.

B/ War and Peace in 2024… A Russian tale

As mentioned before, there is a war on the old continent, again. And again, several global alliances are supporting one country’s efforts in keeping the integrity of its territory, including the EU…

Vladimir Putin’s drive to reestablish dominion over Ukraine can be seen as originating from a blend of historical bitterness and grand strategic goals. He sees Ukraine as a critical piece of Russia’s “Empire” and not an independent country.

Also, the current Russian leadership’s actions can be interpreted as a will to reshape the security contours of Europe while halting NATO’s march eastward. The idea of a Ukraine leaning towards the West rings alarm bells in Moscow. It is seen as a direct challenge to Russian interests and it did not start in 2022. We can trace this back to ten years ago actually.

Fast forward to the last days of 2021, Putin perceived a moment of vulnerability and distraction in Europe and the U.S. to make his move…

Let us briefly go through the timeline of the last ten years leading to the invasion of Ukraine.

2014

Then President Viktor Yanukovych shifts Ukraine towards Russia, leading to his flight amid protests.Russia annexes Crimea after a controversial referendum, sparking global sanctions.2014–2015

Pro-Russian separatists in eastern Ukraine spark armed conflict.Malaysia Airlines Flight MH17 downed, with Western nations blaming Russian-backed separatists.2015–2019

Minsk agreements signed for a ceasefire in eastern Ukraine, but violations persist.Intensified fighting in Donetsk and Luhansk.Volodymyr Zelensky elected President, vowing to resolve conflict and tackle corruption.2020–2021

Stagnant peace talks, continued violence in eastern Ukraine.Rising tensions as Russia masses troops near Ukraine and in Crimea.Western support for Ukraine amid Russian military buildup and ceasefire violations.2022

Failed talks between Russia and Ukraine, with continued conflict blame.Russia announces troop withdrawal but concerns of escalation persist.Russia initiates a large-scale military invasion of UkraineThough he might have anticipated a quick win, the resilience of Ukrainian forces with the support of the West has thrown a wrench in the works of Russians.

Still, it’s a bit of a puzzle what Putin might do next in Ukraine, despite the plethora of sanctions the EU has imposed on Russian officials and given the intricacy of the current geopolitical relationships. Once again, the entire world is currently boiling with conflicts, national and international conflicts and it will take an international effort to resolve said conflicts… once again.

ConclusionIn short, 2024 is a call to action for the EU. It has a heavy role to play in today’s world, should it remain level headed and law abiding in treating all the international turmoil that lends on its table with both adequacy and equity.

How it responds to these current challenges, particularly in Eastern Europe and in the Middle East will shape its global position and legacy for decades to come.

As the strong alliance it is, the EU has a window of action that could either lead to more justice and peace thus sustaining our economic and political stability or more turmoil.

What could become of our democracies in that worst case scenario? Surely it cannot be answered here. Besides, all shades of grey exist in between those possibilities. For the Euro Citizens reading this… it is up to you to decide, which way you do not want to go and cast your vote accordingly. In other words, choose your stars wisely.